Since the day after Christmas, 2018 the U.S. stock market has been on a tear. In fact, 2019 will go down as one of the strongest in history.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that with every day of this continued non-stop rocket ride higher, the odds for a long overdue pullback increase. Yes, stocks remain resilient to the hair on fire news cycle. Traders continue to shrug off China, Iran, impeachment, the world ending in twelve years, and just keep on buying. For now.
That buying accelerated last month as traders who were behind their benchmarks and the FOMO (fear of missing out) crowd chased stocks higher into the close of the year. We also noticed stocks with little revenue and absolutely no profits break out to stratosphere levels, making us take some pause. Can anyone say 2001?
So the odds that Wall Street clicks the reset button pretty soon is high and getting higher by the minute. We know, we know, we’ve been beating this pullback drum for a while now, and the market hasn’t cared one whit. But the odds of a pause are getting too strong to ignore, and will probably start when everyone least expects in and from somewhere we haven’t been looking. This doesn’t mean you should sell everything and run for the hills. It simply means you should proceed with caution.